Routinized Deference: Predictive Screening and Bureaucratic Capacity in Child Protective Services
Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (2026, early view)
I develop the concept of routinized deference to explain how organizational pressures can make following algorithmic advice more defensible than exercising independent judgment. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design in U.S. Child Protective Services, I find that predictive screening adoption was associated with a 15% decline in substantiation rates, longer investigations, and increasing alignment between frontline decisions and model-derived risk scores.
Key takeaway: AI’s contribution to bureaucratic capacity depends on how agencies incorporate it into everyday work and support professional judgment.